OPINION | The coming days are vital for Mudgee and Orange Hawks

After winning four of the six games against Group 10 opposition in round one, Group 11 sides won five of the six games in round two.

It led to plenty of chat from those around the western conference and some were already saying we were in for another all-Group 11 grand final after Forbes downed Dubbo CYMS in last year's decider.

So, ahead of the final round of the regular season this weekend, will that be the case?

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There's a whole lot to like about Group 11 sides this season. Dubbo CYMS has the best record overall, Group 11 sides won 15 of 24 crossover games this year, the six leading try-scorers in the competition play there, three of the four best attacking sides in the competition are in that pool, and Group 11 won this year's representative match against Group 10.

It leads to the question, are any Group 10 sides a chance?

I think by this time next week we can answer that question.

For me, the Mudgee Dragons and Orange Hawks are the only Group 10 teams which can go all the way this year.

Mudgee has been top of the pool all year, they won three of their four crossover games, have plenty of NRL experience in the lineup, and know how to win big games.

Hawks are a team which has got better as the year has gone on. They lost three of their first four games this year and only scored more than 18 points once in the first six rounds. Even then, the 40 points were scored in a win over an Orange CYMS side which has conceded an average of 43 points every game this year.

But the side coached by former NRL premiership winner Shane Rodney has now won five of its past six and has one of the best defences in the competition. Hawks head into this weekend's final round knowing a win over Bathurst St Pat's will secure second spot in the pool and a second bite of the cherry come finals time.

St Pat's fans will no doubt take offence to them not being labelled a serious contender here. They have, to be fair, been second behind Mudgee for the bulk of the regular season.

But Zac Merritt's side has been ravaged by injuries to some key men in recent weeks and have only won two of their past six matches. That's not what you want before finals.

Bathurst Panthers, also bound for finals, have simply been too inconsistent all season.

But why will the coming days be decisive?

Well, Mudgee has the matter of player-coach Clay Priest being put on report last weekend to deal with, while Hawks haven't always been completely convincing against other top four sides this year.

Priest is likely to be suspended for what was from all reports a really nasty high shot against St Pat's last weekend, but if he gets just a couple of weeks then the Dragons are still firmly in the race. If Priest, who does have a bit of a judiciary record, gets rubbed out for the season then things become a whole lot more difficult. He's undoubtedly one of the top few forwards in the competition and provides the Dragons with real go-forward and presence up front.

Hawks have lost five of eight matches against sides currently in the top four of either pool but if they are able to deal with St Pat's in a professional manner with second spot on the line, then they've ticked another box in a big way.

If they lose, you have to question whether they've got what it takes to go the whole way.

Across in Group 11, Dubbo CYMS brushed aside defending premiers Forbes 52-4 last weekend, Parkes returned to form and showed better defensive steel in a big win over Macquarie, and Blake Ferguson's hat-trick against Nyngan shows he's peaking at the right time for Wellington. There's a lot to like about Group 11's top three.

There could be a whole lot more to like about them this time next week ahead of the first week of finals.

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